The latest data on Irish house prices shows that the market is still falling, but it also shows that the rate of decline is slowing and possibly even shows that we may be seeing a bottom.
In the year ending March Irish house prices fell by a further 16.3%, which is less than the 17.8% decline in the year ending February. Before this the rate of decline had been increasing, last March the rate of year on year decline was just over 11%. The rate of acceleration at the end of the year was remarkable, with prices down 15.6% y-o-y in November, 16.7% in December and 17.4% in January.
This slowdown in the rate of decline is also reflected in the month on month data. This time last year it rose from a 1.1% m-o-m decline in January to 1.7% in February and March, by this January the month on month decline hit 1.9% and then 2.2% in February. In March prices were flat, which is a solid slowdown.
Even more positive is the performance of Dublin. During Ireland's house price crash Dublin has bore the brunt, and suffered often much larger declines than the rest of the country. For example last March prices in Dublin fell 13%, while the rest of Ireland excluding Dublin fell 11%, but the gap has widened of late.
This January residential property prices in Dublin were down 21.1% year on year, while in the rest of Ireland prices were down just 15.1%. It is in February that we see the first tip in this scale, when the decline in Dublin prices slowed to 20.3%, while the decline went up to 16.4% in the rest of Ireland excluding Dublin. In March the rate of decline in Dublin slowed again to 18.3% compared to 15.5% in the rest of Ireland excluding Dublin. The better performance in Dublin is also reflected in the monthly data for Dublin house prices, in which we have the first month on month rise of 0.7% in March, following the rate of decline slowing markedly from -4.1% in January to -0.7% in February.
- Monday 30 April 2012