Well respected industry research publication the Global Property Guide has published the latest issue of its global inflation-adjusted index for Q3 2012, and it contains about as many surprises as it always does, which is barely any.
Throughout the crisis the index has contained nothing but divisions, and only the make-up of the divisions ever changes. The index would always be split between the markets performing better and those heading for trouble, with the balance of the two sides being taken as an indication of the overall health of the global market.
The latest index is no different in that respect. This time it highlights that prices fell in 23 countries and rose in 21, this is a big imrprovement on Q2 when prices fell in 25 countries and rose in only 13. In Q3 23 countries performed better than a year ago, while 20 markets performed worse.
In terms of the individual breakdown the biggest anti-surprise is the fact that Europe continues to be one of the worst performing regions. Having said that, in the Q2 index the firm talks about the continued depression in Europe, but then in the tabular breakdown we see that 6 of the top 10 performing markets are in Europe.
This time however it pulls off no such miracle, with only 3 European markets in the top 10, Norway, Latvia and Turkey. Unfortunately the same can't be said of the other end of the table where 9 of the worst performing markets are in Europe. In fact only 9 of the 23 countries in Europe recorded price growth in the year ending Q3, 14 saw prices falling and price falls accelerated in Greece, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Croatia and Lithuania.
One other thing that one can't fail to notice is that the top performing markets just aren't performing as well as they were either. In Q2 2010 the top performing market was Singapore with year on year price growth of 34.03%, Hong Kong is not far behind with growth of 21.79%. By Q2 2011 the best performing markets were only achieving 19% growth, Hong Kong in 1 with 19.76 and Brazil in 2 with 19.50. Then in Q3 then in the latest index we have year on year growth of just 13.46% in top performing UAE and 12.46% in second placed Brazil
Looking at the continued misery of the index it constantly seems that any improvements made in some places are immediately cancelled out by others slipping backwards. Don't look at the Global Property Guide housing index if you want to be optimistic about the current climate that is for sure.
- Wednesday 09 January 2013